Parameter  Definition  Value/Prior distribution
σ  Inverse of the mean incubation period  U ⁢ ( 4 - 1   , 3 - 1   )
γ  Inverse of the mean infectious period  U ⁢ ( 10 - 1   , 9 - 1   )
τ  Time of first exposure (days since 2020-01-01)  U ⁢ ( 0 , 28 )
p 𝑜𝑏𝑠  Probability of observing a case  0.8
k  Dispersion parameter on Negative-Binomial  100
observation model