PMC:7425568 / 10646-12146 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7425568","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7425568","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7425568","text":"The final question to consider is how many more deaths would have resulted if the US had opted for a more limited lockdown that was much less hazardous to the US economy. It is clear that anticontagion policies significantly slow the growth of COVID‐19, but what policies and how much slowing are optimal? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586‐020‐2405‐7. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586‐020‐2404‐8_reference.pdf. The best example of what might have happened is found in Sweden, and that country is an imperfect surrogate for the US economy. Sweden now has one of the highest COVID death rates in the world—almost 44 per 100,000 people. The number of U.S. deaths per 100,000 is just over 32. In Denmark, this number is 10, and in Norway, less than 5. https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/06/08/sweden‐backtracks‐on‐its‐low‐pain‐coronavirus‐plan/. Sweden’s plan is now considered to be less than optimal, but what if the US had followed it? How many additional net deaths would we have suffered due to COVID‐19? How many fewer deaths would we have suffered from postponing health interventions, suicide, and domestic violence, and alcoholism? Let us assume 100,000 additional deaths for the sake of a simple calculation. To save these 100,000 individuals, the cost to the economy was $9 trillion, or $90 million per statistical life. And keep in mind a large component of these individuals could have an economic life valuation much less than the $10 million standard value of a statistical 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