(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
OLS IV OLS IV OLS IV
Average # of new cases, 1-week lag
Own city 0.642*** 0.780*** 0.684*** 0.805*** 0.654*** 0.805***
(0.0644) (0.0432) (0.0496) (0.0324) (0.0566) (0.0439)
× closed management − 0.593*** − 0.244*** − 0.547*** − 0.193*
(0.162) (0.0619) (0.135) (0.111)
× stay at home − 0.597*** − 0.278*** − 0.0688 − 0.110
(0.186) (0.0800) (0.121) (0.143)
Other cities 0.00121 − 0.00159 0.00167 − 0.00108 0.00129 − 0.00142
wt. = inv. dist. (0.000852) (0.00167) (0.00114) (0.00160) (0.000946) (0.00183)
Wuhan 0.00184 0.00382 0.00325* 0.00443 0.00211 0.00418
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00178) (0.00302) (0.00179) (0.00314) (0.00170) (0.00305)
Wuhan 0.00298 0.00110 − 0.00187 − 0.000887 0.00224 − 3.26e-07
wt. = pop. flow (0.00264) (0.00252) (0.00304) (0.00239) (0.00254) (0.00260)
Average # of new cases, 2-week lag
Own city 0.0345 − 0.0701 − 0.0103 − 0.0818 0.0396 − 0.0533
(0.0841) (0.0550) (0.0921) (0.0523) (0.0804) (0.0678)
× closed management − 0.367*** − 0.103 − 0.259** 0.0344
(0.0941) (0.136) (0.111) (0.222)
× stay at home − 0.294*** − 0.102 − 0.124* − 0.162
(0.0839) (0.136) (0.0720) (0.212)
Other cities − 0.00224 − 0.00412** − 0.00190 − 0.00381** − 0.00218 − 0.00397**
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00135) (0.00195) (0.00118) (0.00177) (0.00129) (0.00192)
Wuhan − 0.00512 0.00197 − 0.00445 0.00231 − 0.00483 0.00227
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00353) (0.00367) (0.00328) (0.00348) (0.00340) (0.00376)
Wuhan 0.00585*** 0.00554*** 0.00534*** 0.00523*** 0.00564*** 0.00516***
wt. = pop. flow (0.00110) (0.000929) (0.00112) (0.00104) (0.00109) (0.00116)
Observations 8064 8064 8064 8064 8064 8064
Number of cities 288 288 288 288 288 288
Weather controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
City FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Date FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes