Jan 19–Feb 29 Jan 19–Feb 1 Feb 2–Feb 29
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
OLS IV OLS IV OLS IV
Model A: lagged variables are averages over the preceding first and second week separately
Average # of new cases, 1-week lag
Own city 0.656*** 1.117*** 0.792*** 1.194*** 0.567*** 0.899***
(0.153) (0.112) (0.0862) (0.302) (0.172) (0.0924)
Other cities 0.00114 − 0.00213 − 0.0160 − 0.0734 0.000221 − 0.00526**
wt. = inv. dist. (0.000741) (0.00367) (0.0212) (0.0803) (0.000626) (0.00244)
Wuhan − 0.000482 0.00420 0.104 0.233 5.89e-05 0.00769**
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00173) (0.00649) (0.128) (0.156) (0.00194) (0.00379)
Wuhan 0.00668*** 0.00616*** 0.00641*** 0.00375 − 0.000251 0.00390
wt. = pop. flow (0.00159) (0.00194) (0.00202) (0.00256) (0.00245) (0.00393)
Average # of new cases, 2-week lag
Own city − 0.350*** − 0.580*** 0.230 − 1.541 − 0.157** − 0.250**
(0.0667) (0.109) (0.572) (1.448) (0.0636) (0.119)
Other cities − 0.000869 0.00139 0.172 0.584 − 0.00266* − 0.00399
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00102) (0.00311) (0.122) (0.595) (0.00154) (0.00276)
Wuhan − 0.00461 0.000894 − 0.447 − 0.970 − 0.00456 0.00478*
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00304) (0.00592) (0.829) (0.808) (0.00368) (0.00280)
Wuhan 0.00803*** 0.00203 0.00973*** 0.00734 0.00759*** 0.00466***
wt. = pop. flow (0.00201) (0.00192) (0.00317) (0.00680) (0.00177) (0.00140)
Model B: lagged variables are averages over the preceding 2 weeks
Own city 0.242*** 0.654*** 1.407*** 1.876*** 0.406*** 0.614***
(0.0535) (0.195) (0.215) (0.376) (0.118) (0.129)
Other cities 0.000309 − 0.00315 0.00608 0.0194 − 0.00224 − 0.00568
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00142) (0.00745) (0.0188) (0.0300) (0.00204) (0.00529)
Wuhan − 0.0133** − 0.0167 − 0.0146 − 0.0362 − 0.0138** − 0.00847
wt. = inv. dist. (0.00535) (0.0140) (0.0902) (0.0741) (0.00563) (0.00787)
Wuhan 0.0153*** 0.0133*** 0.00826*** 0.00404 0.0132*** 0.0123***
wt. = pop. flow (0.00273) (0.00273) (0.00241) (0.00423) (0.00222) (0.00205)
Observations 12,096 12,096 4032 4032 8064 8064
Number of cities 288 288 288 288 288 288
Weather controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
City FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Date FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes