, we take averages of lagged yct, yrt, and zt by week, as y¯ctτ=17∑s=17yct−7τ−1−s, y¯rtτ=17∑s=17yrt−7τ−1−s, and z¯tτ=17∑s=17zt−7τ−1−s, in which τ denotes the preceding first or second week. Our main model is 1 yct=∑τ=12αwithin,