Evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China

Highlights
•  The input population and output population are considered.
•  108 scenarios are listed from the input population and quarantine strategies.
•  The second outbreak of disease is obtained.

Abstract
In this study, an epidemic model was developed to simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province which was focused on the period from Jan 27 to Feb 20, 2020. To explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies on the disease variations at different scenarios, four time points were assumed as Feb 6, Feb 16, Feb 24 and Mar 5