Table 1 The summary table of the estimated basic reproduction number, R0, under different scenarios. The estimated R0 is shown as in the ‘median (95%CI)’ format. The ‘reporting rate increased’ indicates the number of fold increase in the reporting rate from January 17, when WHO released the official diagnostic protocol (World Health Organization, 2020b), to January 20, 2020.
Reporting rate increased Estimated R0
Same as MERS SI 7.6 ± 3.4 SI in average 8.0 ± 3.6 Same as SARS SI 8.4 ± 3.8
(unchanged) 5.31 (3.99–6.96) 5.71 (4.24–7.54) 6.11 (4.51–8.16)
0.5-fold 4.52 (3.49–5.76) 4.82 (3.69–6.20) 5.14 (3.90–6.67)
1-fold 4.01 (3.17–5.02) 4.26 (3.34–5.38) 4.53 (3.51–5.76)
2-fold 3.38 (2.75–4.12) 3.58 (2.89–4.39) 3.77 (3.02–4.67)
4-fold 2.73 (2.31–3.22) 2.86 (2.40–3.39) 3.00 (2.50–3.58)
8-fold 2.16 (1.90–2.45) 2.24 (1.96–2.55) 2.32 (2.02–2.66)
Note: ‘SI’ is serial interval. ‘MERS’ is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, and ‘SARS’ is the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.