10.1371/journal.pone.0230405.g014 Fig 14  Scenario II. Simulations until the 29th of February of the cumulative number of infected as obtained using the SIRD model.
Dots correspond to the number of confirmed cases from 16th of Jan to the 10th of February. The initial date of the simulations was the 16th of November with one infected, zero recovered and zero deaths. Solid lines correspond to the dynamics obtained using the estimated expected values of the epidemiological parameters α = 0.319, β = 0.16d−1, γ = 0.0005; dashed lines correspond to the lower and upper bounds derived by performing simulations on the limits of the confidence intervals of the parameters.
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