Trends of COVID-19 in EU/EEA countries and the UK
The trends in the 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases in EU/EEA countries and the UK generally followed that of Hubei Province (China) (Figure 1). For the EU/EEA and the UK overall, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 started to increase around 21 February and then increased sharply around 28 February 2020 (Supplementary material). This was mostly driven by the rapid increase in the number of reported cases from Italy, but all other EU/EEA countries and the UK showed similar increasing trends of the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 (Supplementary material). Figure 2 shows the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases, in EU/EEA countries and the UK compared with that in Italy for the 31 January–15 March 2020 period. It highlights that, as at 15 March 8:00 a.m., 15 other EU/EEA countries and the UK had already reported a total number of cases comparable to that of Italy just 3 weeks prior or less.
Figure 1  Time distribution of the 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of COVID-19 for (A) 14-day truncated cumulative incidence ≥ 4.0 cases per 100,000 population and > 30 notified casesa and (B) 14-day truncated cumulative incidence < 4.0 cases per 100,000 population or < 30 notified casesb, EU/EEA countriesand the UKc, 15 March 2020
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; EU/EEA: European Union/European Economic Area; UK: United Kingdom.
a The 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases distribution in each country is compared with that of Hubei Province, China.
b The 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases distribution in each country is compared with that of Italy (which, unlike the other countries in this panel, has a 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of ≥ 4.0 cases per 100,000 population and > 30 notified cases as at 15 March) and of Hubei Province, China.
c The 14-day truncated cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases is shown from the day (D1) a country reported a 14-day truncated cumulative incidence > 0.05 cases per 100,000 population.
Figure 2  Cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in EU/EEA countries and the UK as at 15 March compared with that in Italy, 31 January–15 March 2020 (total number of cases in the EU/EEA and the UK as at 15 March 2020 8:00 a.m. = 39,768)
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; EU/EEA: European Union/European Economic Area; UK: United Kingdom.
The crimson red bar indicates the position of Italy as at 15 March, while the red, orange and yellow bars indicate the position of Italy 1, 2 and 3 weeks prior, respectively. The number of cases in each country as at 15 March is indicated in parentheses.