Here, we consider the median time to a major epidemic in (8) and (9). Since an exponential growth of cases has been observed, we let the hazard be an exponential function. Then, the integral of the hazard function holds the form: C⋅(exp(rt)−1), where C is a constant (assumed to be one for the following calculation), and r is the exponential growth rate estimated at 0.14 per day [16]. The doubling time is then calculated as td = ln(2)/r = 4.95 days. The difference in the median date between (8) and (9) is thus described as:(10) D=ln(C1−πm1−πm¯+ln(2)C1−πm1−πm¯+ln(2)1−πm1−πm¯)tdln(2).