Extensions
Our previous model tracked all the ways in which infected travellers can be detected by screening (fever screen, or risk factor screen at arrival or departure). Here, we additionally keep track of the many ways in which infected travellers can be missed (i.e. missed given fever present, missed given exposure risk present, missed given both present, or missed given undetectable). Cases who have not yet passed the incubation period are considered undetectable by fever screening, even if they will eventually develop symptoms in the future. In other words, no traveller is considered ‘missed given fever present’ until they have passed the incubation period and show detectable symptoms. Infected travellers who progress to symptoms during their journey are considered undetectable by departure screening, but detectable by arrival screening.
Additionally, we now provide a supplementary user interface, which allows stakeholders to test input parameters of interest using up-to-date information. Here, in addition to the analyses presented in this study, we implemented the possibility that some fraction of infected travellers deliberately evade screening.