Population-level outcomes of screening programs in a growing epidemic.
(A) Violin plots of the fraction of infected travellers detected, accounting for current uncertainties by running 1000 simulations using parameter sets randomly drawn from the ranges shown in Table 1. Dots and vertical line segments show the median and central 95%, respectively. Text above each violin shows the median and central 95% fraction detected. (B) Mean fraction of travellers with each screening outcome. The black dashed lines separate detected cases (below) from missed cases (above). (C) Fraction of simulations in which screening successfully detects at least n cases before the first infected traveller is missed.
Figure 3—source data 1.  Source data for Figure 3A.
Raw, simulated data, and source data for Figure 3—figures supplement 1, 2 can be found as. Rdata or. csv files in the supplementary code.
Figure 3—source data 2.  Source data for Figure 3B.
Figure 3—source data 3.  Source data for Figure 3C.