Figure 2.  Individual outcome probabilities for travellers who screened at given time since infection.
Columns show three possible mean incubation periods, and rows show best-case, middle-case and worst-case estimates of the fraction of subclinical cases. Here, we assume screening occurs at both arrival and departure; see Figure 2—figure supplement 1 and Figure 2—figure supplement 2 for departure or arrival screening only. The black dashed lines separate detected cases (below) from missed cases (above). Here, we assume flight duration = 24 hr, the probability that an individual is aware of exposure risk is 0.2, the sensitivity of fever scanners is 0.7, and the probability that an individual will truthfully self-report on risk questionnaires is 0.25. Table 1 lists all other input values.
Figure 2—source data 1.  Source data for Figure 2.
Raw, simulated data, and source data for Figure 2—figures supplement 1, 2 can be found as. RData or. csv files in the supplementary code.
Figure 2—figure supplement 1.  Departure screening only.
Figure 2—figure supplement 2.  Arrival screening only.