During these early stages of the epidemic, case numbers have doubled on average every 7.4 days with an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2 (1.4–3.9) [1]. Although the data so far suggest that the disease is mild in most cases and that the case fatality rate is currently reported to be lower than SARS or MERS, the situation is likely to go on for months and could cause severe disruption in countries that are not well prepared. Hence countries ranked as high risk in our model (4th and 3rd quantiles) should take all steps necessary to ensure prompt detection of cases and the capacity to manage these cases to prevent ongoing spread. International investment needs to be directed especially to countries with limited healthcare and public health surveillance capacity to enable the detection of cases and disease control [16, 17]