Modeling the epidemic with assumption of no intervention
With a close population assumption and continuous spread of the virus, the number of detected cases can be described using an exponential model [10]. We thus estimated the potentially detectable new cases every day for the period by fitting the observed daily cumulative cases to an exponential curve: 4 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} 				\usepackage{amsmath} 				\usepackage{wasysym} 				\usepackage{amsfonts} 				\usepackage{amssymb} 				\usepackage{amsbsy} 				\usepackage{mathrsfs} 				\usepackage{upgreek} 				\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} 				\begin{document}$$ F\left(\overline{x}\right)=\left(\alpha \right){\mathit{\exp}}^{\beta (t)},\mathrm{t}=\left(12/8/2019,12/9/2019,\dots, 1/20/2020\right), $$\end{document}Fx¯=αexpβt,t=12/8/201912/9/2019…1/20/2020,
where, α =number of expected cases at the baseline and β = growth rate per day.