There is a mean 5-day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalization of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalized from 3 to 7 days after onset, respectively) [19–21]. The duration from illness onset to first medical visit for the 45 patients with illness onset before January 1 was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% CI: 4.3–7.5) [3]. In our model, we set the infectious period of the cases as 5.8 days. Therefore, γP = 0.1724.