t occur in Wuhan, China on 23 February or 19 February. The number of infections would be 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393 with Rt = 0.9 or 0.5, respectively (Figs. 2 and 3).
Fig. 2 Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (1 December 2019–30 April 2020, E = 20I).
In all, 55,