Estimation of the epidemic trend assuming that the prevention and control measures are insufficient in Wuhan, China
Assuming the epidemic continues to develop with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.19 from 1 December 2019, the number of infections will continue to rise (Fig. 1). By the end of February 2020, COVID-19 cases would be 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1, respectively. Detailed calculation process is included in the Materials and methods section.
Fig. 1 Estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (December 2019–February 2020, R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1).
In all, 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989 represent the estimated number of COVID-19 cases by the end of February 2020 in Wuhan, China, with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1, respectively.