Again, the sub-epidemic model yields significantly higher forecasts for Hubei on February 5th, compared to the other models and compared to subsequent prediction intervals on following dates (Fig. 3 a). The width of prediction intervals decreases as more data are included for each of the models in both Hubei and other provinces. This is consistent with shorter-term forecasts in Hubei but differs from the pattern of shorter-term forecasts in other provinces.
Fig. 3 Forecasting results for 15-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model.