The latest 5-day ahead forecasts, generated on February 9, 2020, estimate an average of 34,509–34,596 total cumulative cases in Hubei by February 14, 2020 across the three models (Fig. 1 a). For other provinces, the models predict an average range of 11,317–12,118 cumulative cases by February 14 (Fig. 1b). Based on cumulative reported cases as of February 9th, these estimates correspond with an average of 7409–7496 additional cases in Hubei and 1128–1929 additional cases in other provinces within the next 5 days.
Fig. 1 Forecasting results for 5-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model.