The mean number of total patients, deaths, and persons treated with antiviral drugs with 95% CIs and the epidemic periods in scenarios 1–5 (Table 3) are shown in Table 6. In scenarios 1–3, which encompass the combination of the administration of antiviral drugs (TAP/STAP) with only school closure or restraint, the mean number of total patients would be decreased to 0.18, 0.15, and 0.23%, respectively, of the baseline scenario. Epidemic periods for scenarios 1–3 were assessed as 220, 193, and 226 days, on average, which indicates that these combined interventions would be effective in reducing the number of patients but not for shortening the epidemic period (Table 6). On the other hand, scenarios 4 and 5, which are two different combinations of three interventions [administration of antiviral drugs (TAP/STAP), school closure, and restraint] would have a greater effect on the suppression of infection in terms of the number of total patients, deaths, and persons treated with antiviral drugs and on shortening the epidemic period. In particular, the combination of TAP, school closure, and restraint in scenario 4 (Fig. 8) would decrease the total number of patients to 0.02% of that of the baseline scenario and shorten the epidemic period to 72 days (Table 6).
Table 6 Summary of results for combined scenarios
Scenarios Total number of patients Total number of deaths Number of treated persons Epidemic period (days)
Baseline 1,087,165 (1,024,014, 1,150,316) 4,354.89 (4,102, 4,608) 0 202.03
1 1,987 (1,549, 2,425) 7.84 (5.98, 9.70) 2,471 (2,089, 2,854) 220.08
2 1,657 (1,230, 2,084) 6.72 (4.95, 8.49) 2,044 (1,670, 2,418) 193.17
3 2,453 (1,850, 3,055) 10.11 (7.54, 12.68) 2,943 (2,419, 3,467) 226.06
4 171 (145, 196) 0.76 (0.53, 0.99) 132 (111, 152) 71.60
5 191 (163, 219) 0.83 (0.57, 1.09) 148 (126, 171) 82.30
Values in table are given as the mean, with the 95% CI in parenthesis
Fig. 8 Epidemic curves for scenario 4 in 100-trial simulations (grey lines) and in the profile of the average (black line)