School closure
The impact of school closure is shown in Fig. 6. School closure would, on average, delay the peak of infection for an average of 45 days compared to the baseline and decrease total and peak patients to 86 and 52% of the baseline scenario (Table 5).
Fig. 6 Comparison of epidemic curves for no intervention (baseline) (grey line) and school closure (black line)
Table 5 Summary of results for school closure and restraint
Intervention Total number of patients Total number of deaths
Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI)
Baseline 1,087,165 (1,024,014, 1,150,316) 4,355 (4,102, 4,608)
School closure 934,717 (876,811, 992,622) 3,772 (3,538, 4,006)
Restraint (10%) 994,220 (936,468, 1,051,972) 3,985 (3,753, 4,217)
Restraint (30%) 786,105 (737,405, 834,806) 3,159 (2,963, 3,355)
Restraint (50%) 547,762 (506,031, 589,493) 2,191 (2,024, 2,358)