Conclusion
This study analyzed nationwide traffic and the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea after the country’s first confirmed case.
Nationwide traffic in the first 3 months of 2020 decreased by 9.7% compared with 2019. In particular, when the KCDC raised the infectious disease alert level to ‘orange’ there was an initial decrease in nationwide traffic, followed by a second decrease when the alert level was raised to ‘red’. Over the same period, the number of COVID-19 patients and the rate of spread also increased.
Nevertheless, on March 6 WHO and the Korean media conveyed reports of a decrease in daily new confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea, and nationwide traffic increased from March 7. If vehicular traffic continued to increase at this rate, it would have reached 2019 levels in April.
Due to the spread of COVID-19 in the US and Europe, the number of Koreans and COVID-19 patients returning from overseas is increasing. In Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, unlike other regions, the trend for new confirmed patients increased in March. These regions showed relatively little change in traffic according to COVID-19 patient trends, with Incheon especially showing a significant positive linear relationship.
In South Korea, the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases has been decreasing since March, while the traffic has been increasing. However, it will be necessary to use accurate data to further analyze circumstances in the event of a secondary outbreak of COVID-19 due to increased traffic and re-influx from the overseas, and to prepare policies and equipment to cope with such a scenario. In particular, the fact that traffic is increasing indicates greater contact between people, which in turn increases the risk of COVID-19 spread. Therefore, the government will need to devise suitable policies, such as total social distancing.