We first plot the time series on the predicted number of reported cases, i.e., the number of hospitalized individuals H(t) and the predicted cumulative cases based on the updated parameters listed in Table 1, and shown in Fig. 2 . It shows that the number of hospitalized individuals will peak on around February 4th, 2020 (Fig. 2(A, C)), while the predicted number of cumulative cases will continue to grow for some duration but with a slower growth rate (Fig. 2(D)). Moreover, sensitivity analysis revealed that further enhanced measures can reduce the peak value and hence decrease the predicted cumulative case numbers ((Fig. 2(A and B)). We caution that increasing the number of susceptible individuals may lead to an increase in the peak value and enlarge the predicted cumulative case numbers ((Fig. 2(C and D)), emphasizing the importance of sustaining the implemented control strategies such as self-isolation in order to reduce the susceptibility. We emphasize that the peak time is defined here as the time when the number of confirmed cases reaches the maximum, so sustaining the intervention measures is critical.
Fig. 2 Predictions and effect of control measures on infection based on assumption that parameters obtained from fitting the data from January 23rd to January 29th, 2020 (and hence the interventions) remain unchanged. (A–B) Decreasing the minimum contact rate after January 29th, 2020; (C–D) Decreasing/increasing the susceptible population size as of January 29th, 2020.