Parameter  Value (baseline scenario)  Source
Duration of travel  12 hours  Beijing – London [18]
Sensitivity of exit screening  86%  Sensitivity of infrared thermal image scanners [19]
Sensitivity of entry screening  86%  Sensitivity of infrared thermal image scanners [19]
Proportion of asymptomatic infections undetectable by typical screening procedures  17%  1 of 6 reported asymptomatic in a 2019-nCoV family cluster [11]
Incubation period  Mean 5.2 days, variance 4.1 days  Reported Gamma distributed mean, variance estimated from uncertainty interval of mean [8]
Time from symptom onset to hospitalisation  Mean 9.1 days, variance 14.7 days  Reported Gamma distributed mean, variance estimated from uncertainty interval of mean [8]